Flacco-mania returns home tonight as Joe Flacco and the 10-5 SU Cleveland Browns look to stay near the top of the AFC standings as they welcome the New York Jets as a touchdown favorite to kick off the Week 17 slate in TNF odds.
After the Jets’ 30-point outburst last week was aided by Sam Howell’s errors, is Thursday night the time to get back to fading the Jets’ offense in the NFL odds with Trevor Siemian likely under center?
I break down the Week 17 NFL odds and offer my free NFL picks for the Jets vs. Browns on December 28.
Be sure to also check out our three favorite Jets vs Browns prop picks and our Amari Cooper spotlight!
Jets vs Browns odds
Jets vs Browns predictions
The New York Jets scored more than 13 points for just the second time across their last nine games in Week 16 and needed to face the worst defense in football to do so. This week will be an infinitely more difficult challenge as they have to move the ball vs. the No.1 defense in success rate with less time to prepare for it.
New York hung 30 points last week but still managed just 4.5 yards per play — just a little better than its season average of 4.3, which ranks 30th in the league. They capitalized on a trio of turnovers and still only went 2-for-5 in the red zone. It’s a tough spot for this offense to put up more than 14 points, which is something it’s failed to do in 10 of 15 games on the season.
It’s looking like Trevor Siemian again this week as Zach Wilson deals with a concussion. As of Tuesday, Wilson is still in the league’s five-step protocol. Siemian finished last week as QB No.31 in CPOE with an expected completion rate eight points below expected. He also finished 28th in QB rating and 34th in average intended air yards at 3.3 yards, per Next Gen Stats.
Siemian didn’t take a sack in Week 16 but that will change Thursday vs. a Cleveland Browns defense that is a Top-5 unit in pressure percentage and QB hit percentage. The likely starter has a true completion percentage of 51.4%, a deep-ball completion rate of 14.3%, and a completion rate of 20% when under pressure across 88 throws on the season, per PlayerProfiler.
It’s a battle of the worst offense vs. the best defense, which is also allowing a league-best 13.1 points per game at home on the season.
Don’t be fooled by the 30-point output last week. Sam Howell might have had the worst game by any starting QB all season and the difference between this Cleveland defense and Washington’s is 30 teams.
My best bet: New York Jets team total Under 13.5 (-104 at FanDuel) 25% live boost availablePicks made at time of writing may not reflect live odds.
MORE NFL FREE PICKS
Jets vs Browns same-game parlay
Jets team total Under 13.5Jerome Ford anytime TDDavid Njoku Over 49.5 receiving yards
+765 at FanDuel
The Jets team total Under is starting to fall and it could hit 12.5, which would be a no-play on my end.
Jerome Ford is getting all the work between the 20s and even took four of the nine RB red-zone carries last week, which he turned into one score.
The Jets are much easier to run on and the game script and possible weather should keep the 15-carry back busy. David Njoku has 31 targets over the last three games and the Browns are chucking the ball. Amari Cooper will have a tough matchup with the New York DBs, so the passing offense could go through the TE on Thursday night.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
FanDuel Thursday Night Football bonuses
Promo25% boost for one live TNF bet!e.g. a -104 bet BOOSTS to +120!
Sign Up OfferCreate a new account and bet $5 on a moneyline wager — get $150 in bonus bets if your team wins!
Claim Now at
Eligible USA locations only. Also, see our full list of best sportsbook promotions for 2023.21+. Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER
