The bulk of NFL Week 17 picks and predictions kick off on New Year’s Day, not only giving football bettors a clean slate to start off 2023 but also time to reflect on past wagers.
It’s a perfect chance to set some “New Year’s Resolutions” around your NFL gambling habits, rather than the usual hollow personal promises like losing weight or calling your parents more.
No matter how far up or down the sports betting food chain you sit, you can always be better. Here are some of my resolutions for betting NFL odds in 2023. Feel free to tail:
- Beware the 4-point favorite: The 4-point spread is the “no-man’s land” of lines and has been a Bermuda Triangle for betting in recent years: money goes in and doesn’t come back out. These teams that are good enough to be favored by more than a field but not great enough to warrant a 6-point spread are just 13-33 ATS since 2020 — covering 28% of the time. That said, the moneyline for the 4-point chalk usually hovers around -200, which provides a little more stability for those 4-point faves you think are the correct side.
- Meet the Double Result: The Double Result may not be on the radar of newer sports bettors, but it’s been around as long as online bookies. It often presents plus-money value with a little extra risk while avoiding the pitfalls of the spread. Also known as “First Half/Full Game” odds, you can select which team will lead at the halftime break and which one will win the game outright. The Double Result is a good way to deal with bigger favorites you might be on the fence about.
- Love look-aheads: While only a select number of books used to post “look-ahead” lines for the next week’s slate, most major operators now offer these spreads and totals. While limits are usually lower, the look-ahead lines give you an opportunity to get ahead of market moves, and using the current lines and expected results, you can either catch a favorite at a shorter spread or snag a dog with some bonus points. Look-ahead lines are also a great way to look at the market perception of a team, comparing what the line was before the most recent result and what the line sits at now.
OK, that’s enough preaching for one column. I hope you have a smart and successful 2023 when it comes to your NFL picks and predictions. Here are my best NFL Underdogs for Week 17.
